#Break new world driver#
Global poverty numbers have become a headline, rather than a driver of change. But bad as it is, this outcome seems preferable to the idea of a collective international effort to minimize the development damage. Everyone seems to be against the current process of waiting for the proverbial shoe to drop, and then entering into protracted negotiations on a case-by-case basis where power and connections dictate what each creditor can extract. Yet despite the lessons of history (negotiate haircuts, act with speed, treat all creditors fairly), there is nothing on the table to implement serious programs. As we have shown in an earlier paper, at least half of this is owed by countries that need significant debt relief. There is over $100 billion in external debt service due from 61 countries who are likely to face serious financing difficulties. A combination of a moratorium for some countries, a drawdown of reserves for others, and the ability of still others to access capital markets, albeit paying higher risk premia, helped stave off the worst effects. The worst fears of widespread debt defaults in 2020 did not come to pass. Homi Kharas and Meagan Dooley Tuesday, December 15, 2020Ī second major uncertainty is over debt and flows of capital. The slowest rebounds in economic growth in 2021 are projected right now to be in commodity-exporting regions like Latin America, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, but these countries could surprise if commodity prices were to strengthen. For EMDEs, there is a range of commodity price uncertainties that are of first-order import for some countries and regions. Looking into the future is particularly difficult for 2021. On the disease front, 2021 may be more hopeful for many people in EMDEs who can start to see the endgame but will almost certainly be far worse in terms of outcomes-deaths, hospitalizations, and number of total cases-compared to 2020. COVAX, the international consortium making donor-funded vaccines available to developing countries, hopes to start its first shipments in the first quarter of 2021, and has set itself a target of delivering 2 billion doses during 2021, but it is still far short of being financially and technically able to meet this goal. Since then, the number of new cases per week has started to accelerate, has already roughly doubled, and shows no signs of stabilizing at a new plateau yet.
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In summer 2020, EMDEs had appeared to reach a plateau of around 200,000 new cases per week, a level that was stable for about 4 months until November.
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DiseaseĮmerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are entering 2021 with a high level and steep rise in new COVID-19 cases per week. We almost certainly need collaborative action to avoid traps on the path to sustainable development, but thankfully, we do not have to make all humans behave in the same way to achieve them. We will have our fill of diseases, uncertainties, and poverty in every country. Senior Fellow - Global Economy and Development, Center for Sustainable DevelopmentĮnter 2021.